Hi {{first_name|Friend}},
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝘄𝗼 𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗞𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗧𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗮 𝗦𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗺𝗽𝘂𝘀
Here's how it usually goes wrong. And it's nobody's fault — it's just the order everyone does it in.
Your kiddo falls for a school. You visit, you walk the quad, you buy the sweatshirt. Somewhere in there, a price tag gets quietly attached to a feeling. Then, months later — usually the spring of senior year — the award letters land, and you're standing at the kitchen table trying to work out how a "$78,000 a year" school became a real bill your family is somehow supposed to pay.
That's the worst possible moment to meet the cost of college. By April of senior year, most of the moves that could have saved you real money are already behind you.
There's a better way to do this, and it starts with two numbers. Get them on paper 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 you build the college list — not after — and the whole thing stops feeling like guesswork.
Let me walk you through both. It's the same starting point I use with every family, and the same one I used on my own twins.
𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗻𝗲: 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗴𝗲 𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿
Your College Number is the most your family can pay, per year, per kiddo, without breaking your retirement plan.
Read that again, because most parents get it wrong in a specific way. Your College Number is NOT what's sitting in the 529. It is NOT the sticker price minus financial aid. It is NOT what your brother-in-law paid for his kid three years ago. It's a line you draw for your own family — a decision, not a lookup.
Parents ask me all the time, "Michael, where's the line — is it $50,000? Is it $100,000?" Right, wrong. Nobody can hand you that number. But I can show you how to build it, and it comes from four things:
1. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘆𝗼𝘂'𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁. Not what's theoretically available if you cancel every vacation and eat rice for four years — what you'll actually, sustainably move from your monthly budget.
2. 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗴𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀, 𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗴𝗲, 𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝗸𝗶𝗱𝘀. That 529 balance looks a lot smaller once you spread it across two kiddos and eight total years.
3. 𝗔 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗺𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴. And here's where I push back on people — this number is usually 𝘴𝘮𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 than they assume. Parent PLUS loans are easy to get and hard to live with, and you do not want to be making college payments in your late 60s.
4. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗽𝘀 𝗶𝗻. Summer earnings, work-study, a modest student loan. Define "modest" honestly — a kiddo should have some skin in the game, not a mortgage.
Add those up and you've got a number. Say a family lands at $28,000 a year. That's their line. Any school that's going to cost them more than that has to earn its way back down under the line — or it doesn't make the list.
The number is the deliverable. Write it down.
𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝘄𝗼: 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗦𝗔𝗜
There's a second number attached to your family right now, and you've probably never seen it.
It's called the SAI — the Student Aid Index. It used to be the EFC, the Expected Family Contribution; the government renamed it in 2024, but it does the same job: it's what colleges use to decide what they think your family can pay each year. It comes out of the FAFSA formula, and for about 200 mostly-private schools, a second form called the CSS Profile.
Think of it like getting pre-qualified before you shop for a house. You wouldn't tour $800,000 homes if the bank pre-qualified you at $400,000 — you'd get the number first, then shop inside it. Your SAI is your college pre-qualification. And most families never look at it until a school hands it back to them.
The number often surprises people — because a few big things don't count the way they fear:
● 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝘀 — 401(k)s, IRAs — generally aren't counted as assets at all.
● 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗶𝗻 isn't counted by the FAFSA. (Some CSS Profile schools do look at it — that's a real difference worth knowing.)
● It's built on 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸, which means the clock on smart planning starts earlier than most people realize.
So the number colleges expect from you may be a good deal lower than the scary one living in your head. But — and this matters — you have to actually calculate it. Guess high, and you talk yourself out of schools you could have afforded. Guess low, and you set yourself up for a shock. Run it.
And be honest about the limits. The SAI is an estimate, not a promise. If you own a business or you're a divorced or split family, the CSS Profile is a 1040 on steroids, and the default answers are usually wrong. Know what's inside your wheelhouse and what isn't — that part's worth a second set of eyes.
𝗡𝗼𝘄 𝗽𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺 𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗯𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 — 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗮𝗽
Two numbers on paper: your College Number, and your SAI. One of three things is now true.
𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗴𝗲 𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗦𝗔𝗜. Rare for the families I work with, but if that's you, your job is mostly filing correctly and not leaving aid on the table.
𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆'𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹. The classic upper-middle-income spot. Financial aid won't move the needle much, so your savings come from picking schools that are generous to a family like yours — and appealing where you've got a real case.
𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗦𝗔𝗜 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗴𝗲 𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿. The most common one I see. The formula says you "can" pay more than your family knows it actually will, and that gap is real. Ignoring it is exactly how good, careful families end up cosigning loans they regret.
Let me show you what that looks like. Last year I worked with a family — two incomes, mid-six figures, two kids, a good-but-not-valedictorian kiddo. Their SAI came back around $58,000 a year. Their College Number was closer to $35,000. A $23,000 gap. Almost $100,000 over four years.
We didn't close it by shrinking the SAI. We closed it by changing the school list — targeting schools generous to a family that looked like theirs — and writing one well-aimed appeal letter. That kiddo is now at a school they love for $34,500 a year, retirement intact. Every family's different, and I won't promise you those exact numbers. But the gap that scares you is usually workable — 𝘪𝘧 you can see it early.
And you can only see it early if both numbers are on paper before you fall in love with a campus.
𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀
That's the whole lesson. Numbers first, list second. Get pre-qualified, then go shopping.
Do it in that order and you stop touring schools that were never going to work. You stop negotiating against your own kid's dream at the dinner table in April. You start from a position of knowing instead of guessing — and knowing, it turns out, is most of what makes this bearable.
Here's the honest part: you can do a lot of this yourself. Plenty of families run their own two numbers and do just fine, and I'll always tell you when something is genuinely within your reach. The point isn't who helps you. The point is that you 𝘥𝘰 it — and that you do it now, while the moves are still on the table.
Control the controllables. Your two numbers are the first two.
Don't walk this path alone.
— Michael
𝘗.𝘚. 𝘐𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘵𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘦𝘭𝘴𝘦 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴, 𝘵𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵: 𝘴𝘪𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘸𝘦𝘦𝘬 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘳𝘢𝘧𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘊𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘦 𝘕𝘶𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳. 𝘑𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘯𝘶𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘯𝘦. 𝘛𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘭𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘨𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘸 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘪𝘵 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭𝘴. (𝘐 𝘥𝘰 𝘸𝘢𝘭𝘬 𝘧𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘣𝘰𝘵𝘩, 𝘭𝘪𝘷𝘦, 𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘴𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘛𝘸𝘰 𝘕𝘶𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘴 — 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘱.)
